Monday, December 31, 2007

Win some, lose some...

Herm Edwards screws the Jets again!

The Jets tried their hardest to lose a stinker of a game on Sunday, but Herm, God bless 'em, tried harder. The Jets even had a holding penalty on the game-winning field goal to force a re-kick, and Herm calls a time-out to "ice the kicker"... as if Mike Nugent wasn't iced enough by celebrating a game-winning kick, only to be told he'd have to try it again from 10 yards further away.

If the Jets had lost yesterday, they'd be 3-13, tied with St. Louis for the league's second-worst record. That would have given them the third pick in the draft (because St. Louis had the same record, but against a weaker strength of schedule). Instead, they'll pick sixth. Dolphins, Rams, then a coin flip to determine Falcons-Raiders-Chiefs, then the Jets at No. 6. The Chiefs, if they had won, would have a coin flip to determine if they pick 7th or 8th, instead of 3rd, 4th or 5th.

The Jets have so many needs that they'll be able to get a useful player with the sixth pick, but still, you have to wonder if Eric Mangini didn't tell Nugent during the time out, "You know, wide right sounds pretty good right now..."

I really don't follow college football so I don't know who will be there at No. 3 and who will be there at No. 6.

Looking at various mock drafts, the No. 1 pick is almost always DT Glenn Dorsey from LSU; the second pick is usually RB Darren McFadden from Arkansas; and the third pick is often OT Jake Long from USC. After those three, there's Howie Long's kid (DE Chris Long of Virginia), a couple QBs (Brian Brohm, Matt Ryan) and a couple OTs (Sam Baker, Ryan Clady). Obviously you can get a very good or even a great player at the No. 6 pick, but it seems the drop-off in talent happens right after the third pick.

It's just bad luck that the Jets are picking third rather than sixth. I mean, you can't lose on purpose... right, Herm?

Monday, December 24, 2007

Well, that sucked

Last year, the Packers beat the Bears on New Year's Eve and I felt good about it. Yesterday, the Bears beat the Packers and I don't feel bad about it.

Last year's win was meaningless in the big scheme of things -- no matter what happened, the Bears had clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the Packers had been eliminated from the post-season. But at the time we all thought it was Brett Favre's last game, so it was nice to see him go out a winner. It was nice to finish the season 8-8. And it is always nice to beat the Bears.

Yesterday's loss actually did matter, or at least, could matter. The loss means the Packers can't catch the Cowboys for the No. 1 seed, so if they make it to the NFC Championship game, we'll have to face them in Dallas. Ugh. Of course I'd rather be the No. 1 seed, but at least we now know we can rest everybody next week and we still get the bye. So while I'm not happy we lost, I'm not crying about it either. The Bear fans can celebrate their sweep of the Packers while we're preparing for the playoffs.

Speaking of which... As it stands now, the No. 6 seed will be the Redskins if they beat the Cowboys next week. If they lose, the Vikings are in with a win over Denver. If both lose and the Saints win, New Orleans is in -- but if all three lose, the Redskins are in.

The Giants have locked up the No. 5 seed, the Bucs are the No. 4 seed and Seattle is No. 3. So the sixth-place team -- let's say the Redskins -- will play the Seahawks, while Tampa Bay plays the Giants. If the favorites win, we get to welcome home Mike Holmgren while the Bucs get the Cowboys. Now that they're out of the Packers' division, I don't know much about the Bucs these days, but I'll be cheering like hell for them next month. Jeff Garcia to Joey Galloway! Hoo baby.

Monday, December 17, 2007

I don't care about George Mitchell

I don't care about George Mitchell. I don't care about the Mitchell Report (PDF Download). I don't care about steroids and I don't care who used them and when. I don't care that Andy Pettitte used HGH and I don't care that Brendan Donnelly hasn't slept since the report's release. I don't care.

There really isn't anything I am going to hear that will surprise me when it comes to performance enhancing drugs. I know doping happens. I know it is widespread and I am certain it will continue. There is too much at stake for it not to. The middling player will always try to gain an advantage to get ahead. This is why a LOT of the names linked to doping are guys you probably aren't familiar with unless you follow baseball very closely. They are guys that were clawing and scratching for any advantage they could find to either make the big leagues or stay in the big leagues.

Why?

It is really a very simple equation and can be traced very neatly back to the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Each major league baseball team has 25 major league roster spots and that is all. In order to qualify for one of these roster spots you have to be special. You have to be able to throw the ball faster than 99.9% of the global population or hit a ball harder than 99.9% of the global population or be faster, or throw farther, or be able to strike out a left handed batter in a crucial spot with your crafty veteran guile. You have to be special. Many players who make the major leagues have done very little but play baseball their entire lives. When finally reaching the pinnacle of their life's work it is very possible they will find they cannot cut it at the highest level. Then what happens? Desperation. Desperate people clinging to dreams of greatness or aging greats clinging to their years of glory will take whatever measures they can, legal or otherwise to stay in the game.

In some ways it is sad to see. In some ways it is the inevitable spawn of a business that takes in billions in revenue every year. Money drives behavior in our world and a lot of that behavior isn't good.

I also hate the hypocrisy that is found between baseball and football. Football has always had a "If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'," attitude towards performance enhancers. Baseball is supposed to be above the same kind of behavior? Kind of a silly argument. I don't remember ever seeing Paul Tagliabue or Roger Goodell in front of a congressional subcommittee.

All that was achieved by the Mitchell Report was to catalog something that isn't terribly important and the report truly changes nothing. I was a huge baseball fan before the Mitchell Report, I am a huge baseball fan now, and I will be a huge baseball fan in the future. I believe most baseball fans would say the same.

D. Isaac

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Thank you Philadelphia!

For the first time since 4th and 26, I can enjoy Philadelphia Cream Cheese again.

The Eagles pulled off the upset and beat the Cowboys today, and that, coupled with the Packers beating the Rams, ties the two top teams in the NFC at 12-2. Today's win clinched a first-round bye for the Pack; the Cowboys loss means we still have a shot at home-field throughout.

Yeah, by virtue of their ref-aided win against the Pack, the Cowboys have the tiebreaker, so they control their own destiny. We play at the Bears and home against the Lions, while they're at Carolina (on Saturday night) and at Washington.

We shouldn't need any motivation for a game against the Bears, but the Packers should come out flying after they beat us at Lambeau earlier this year. And imagine how fired up the Packers will be on Sunday afternoon if the Cowboys lose against the Panthers the night before?

The good news is we have a shot at home field throughout, which, after watching the debacle in Texas Stadium a couple weeks ago, can't be underestimated. The bad news is we can't rest anybody next week. But hey, that's what the bye week is for.

Despite the final score (33-14) and the accolades for Brett Favre breaking Dan Marino's yardage record, this game was pretty close until about midway through the third quarter, when Favre hit Greg Jennings for a big TD to make it 27-14.

Steven Jackson had a huge game. A couple times I did the fist pump after seeing him get tackled after "only" five or six yards. Marc Bulger also had a better game than it would look in the boxscore, as both his INTs to Atari Bigby were flukey tipped balls. Don't get me wrong, the Packers should have won the game, but it wasn't your usual 33-14 laugher.

So onto next week. Bring on the Bears!

Friday, November 30, 2007

Better luck next time?

I and every true Packer fan woke up this morning with a sore right elbow. Sympathy pains for Brett Favre? Yes, but mostly from throwing the remote at the referees on TV. I'm going to spend the next hour watching Animal Planet and rooting against the zebras.



I can't completely blame the refs, nor the injuries - Favre, Charles Woodson, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila - but obviously both were factors. The game-calling in those first 20 minutes was atrocious, especially when you see how well the dinking-and-dunking was working later in the game. And why did we decide we couldn't run against the Cowboys, even when they were dropping five guys back into coverage? Every play-action, Ryan Grant runs untouched while Favre heaves into double coverage. It didn't make any sense. Not going for it on fourth-and-inches in the fourth quarter also was a dumb call. Yeah, Mason Crosby kicked the figgie and we needed two scores, but I would've gone for it.

But the refs blew three huge calls. Al Harris stripping the ball from Terrell Owens, but no, it was uh... huh. The horrible spot in the fourth quarter that led to the field goal - it appeared Grant had the first down. And the ridiculous pass interference call when Miles Austin whined and whined until a flag came out 30 seconds - literally, if you didn't see the game - after the play ended. All were terrible calls. If just one of them goes our way, maybe the outcome is different.

I guess the news with Favre is as good as we could have hoped - he expects to be back for their next game, which isn't until Dec. 9. As for Woodson and KGB, I expected them to play last night, so who knows.

Worst of all it almost guarantees we'll be back in Dallas for the NFC championship. We have four games left - home against Oakland, at St. Louis, at Chicago, home against Detroit. We could (should?) go 4-0 against that slate, which leaves us at 14-2. But the Cowboys are at Detroit, home against Philadelphia, at Carolina, at Washington. They too could run the table. But maybe they lose one - that still leaves us tied, with the Cowboys holding the tiebreaker. So we need to win out and have the Cowboys go 2-2. Possible, but not probable.

I guess I have to be a Lions fan next week...



Wow, two lions videos in one post. Maybe it's a good sign for Detroit!

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Will the status quo be good enough?

The Yankees are putting the band back together.



I was hoping for two out of the big three - Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada - and they got all three. And Andy Pettitte is still flirting with retirement, but he might be back, too. For all the talk after the Cleveland series about the end of the dynasty (which has been pronounced "ended" every year since 2001), the 2008 Yankees may be the same team as the 2007 Yankees.

Guys like Steve Phillips like to say that's not good enough. The Yankees can't be as good as they were last year -- they have to be better. Because, after all, they didn't win the World Series last year, so they have to try to be better, right? (Yes, these are the same guys who say every year that the Yankees are stupid for thinking they can win the World Series every year.)

But which 2007 Yankees will these 2008 Yankees be? The first half of 2007, when their Opening Day starter was Carl Pavano, and when the rest of the rotation was whoever could make the next train from Scranton?

Apparently Phillips thinks the Yankees will tie the Major League record they set last year by using 10 different starters (six of them rookies) in their first 30 games.

Let's remember: At the end of May, 22-29. At the end of September, 94-68. That's 72-39 -- a .649 winning percentage. Over a full season, that's 105 wins.

The same team, but with a better manager, a full year of Joba and Hughes, and a reasonable, non-record setting number of injuries? I'll take the status quo.

All I ask is a decent lefty in the 'pen... and better bug spray.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Posada's Pay-Day

You'd be smiling too, if you just got a $13.1 million a year contract.

Yes, following the 2010 season, this may look like a lousy deal. But I think the Yankees did what they had to do to re-sign Jorge Posada, closing what would have been a far bigger hole than the one at third base.

It's true that we won't be able to find a third baseman with 54 home runs, 156 runs batted in and a 1.067 OPS -- or even one with 35 HRs, 139 RBIs and a .915 OPS, what Alex Rodriguez did in his "off year" of 2006. But the drop-off from A-Rod to whoever plays third for the Yankees, even if it's a worst-case-scenario platoon of Wilson Betemit and Aaron Bleeping Boone, won't be as ugly as the drop from Posada to Jason LaRue or Damian Miller or Yorvit Torrealba. Now that Posada's off the market, the best option available is arguably Paul Lo Duca, who hit .272 but with a ridiculously empty .689 OPS, or maybe Michael Barrett, who hit .244 with a .653, but is a guy a smart organization would target with a one-year make-good contract. After that it's all guys who should be back-ups.

Posada isn't a great defensive catcher. Over the years, he's improved when it comes to throwing out baserunners -- from awful to below average -- and for a lot of people, that's the only factor they consider when it comes to evaluating a catcher's defense. But Jorge allows a lot of passed balls -- 13 in 1111.3 innings last year. On the ESPN leader board, that's the fourth-most in the majors. That doesn't count all the wild pitches that are charged to the pitcher but that an average catcher probably could have blocked. And when you watch a Yankee game, what's even more frustrating are the pitches that simply pop out of his glove. The ball doesn't get far enough away for the runner to advance, or there's no one on base anyway, so it doesn't go down as a passed ball. But how often is an umpire going to give you a strike if the catcher drops the ball?

All that said, here's a catcher coming off a career year -- .338 BA, .426 OBP, .543 SLG -- in a very weak market for free agent catchers. To quote Teddy KGB, "Pay that man his money."



Jorge isn't likely to put up those numbers again, so what's a reasonable projection for next year? How about he hits .262 with a .782 OPS, which is what he did in 2005 -- his worst numbers since '99, when he was still sharing the job with his new manager. That seems like a reasonable expectation for a minimum level of production for the next two or three years.

That's 100 more points in OPS than you'll get from any other catcher on the market. And 100 points in OPS makes up for a lot of passed balls.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Donnie Baseball or Joltin' Joe Girardi-O?

The New York Daily News and Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman reported today that Joe Girardi will be the next Yankee manager.

I don't buy it.

I think it will be Don Mattingly. And more than that, I think it should be Mattingly. Or at least, shouldn't be Girardi.

The Daily News had this lovely little chart today with the pros and cons for each managerial candidate -- Girardi, Mattingly and Tony Pena, who, let's face it, was there just to fulfill the MLB requirement that you speak to a minority. (After Pena interviewed, the headline on the back of the New York Post should have been: "The Token Has Spoken.")

Anyway, so here's this chart that was in the Daily News today:



I don't think you can disagree with the idea that, when it comes to the '08 Yankees, the most important category out of those four is "handling of pitching staff." Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy are three terrific young arms, and Chien-Ming Wang has to get straightened out. After 12 years of watching Torre falling asleep in the dugout, "Game strategy/decision-making" is obviously not a priority with this team. I don't think either "Communication with players" or "Relationship with front office" will be a problem with either guy.

So, if I was advising the Yankees, my priority would be getting a guy who knows how to handle a pitching staff. And, according to the Daily News article, that's one of Brian Cashman's top priorities, too. Good, so we're all on the same page.

But why does Girardi get four checkmarks for handling the pitching staff? "Because he used to be a catcher, and catchers know how to handle pitchers." Really? Joe Torre used to be a catcher, how were his pitcher handling skills?

I have three reasons why Girardi shouldn't get any positive marks for handling the pitching staff: Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Dontrelle Willis.

Johnson was probably the reason Girardi got fired. Girardi brought Johnson back into a game after an 82-minute rain delay and right after that, he hurt his arm. Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria blamed the injury on Johnson pitching after the rain delay. Is he right? Who knows. But if Girardi does the same thing to Joba or Hughes and he gets hurt, will we still be patting him on the back for his great handling of a pitching staff?

And then there's Sanchez. Marlins fans blamed Girardi for Sanchez's injury as well. Sanchez threw 76.1 innings in Single A in 2004, 136 innings between Single A and Double-A in '2005, and then 200 innings between Double-A and the majors in 2006. That includes 114.1 innings in the majors in '06, including six starts in September totaling 43 innings, including two complete games (one of them a no-hitter), and two starts after hurting his hand trying to barehand a comebacker. More evidence of Joe's careful use of young pitching talent?

I really can't fault Girardi for riding Sanchez and Johnson through July and August, as they were realistically in the Wild Card hunt. But by mid-September they were basically out of it.

As for Dontrelle, I don't know what's wrong with this guy. And apparently Girardi doesn't either.


YEAR ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 K:BB HR/9 IP
2003 3.30 1.28 7.9 3.2 2.4 0.7 160.2
2004 4.02 1.38 6.3 2.8 2.3 0.9 197.0
2005 2.63 1.13 6.5 2.1 3.1 0.4 236.1
2006 3.87 1.42 6.4 3.3 1.9 0.8 223.1
2007 5.17 1.60 6.4 3.8 1.7 1.3 205.1


It doesn't look to me like Girardi, in '06, figured out the key to Dontrelle. Maybe '04 and '06 represent his true ability level and '03 and '05 are the upper limit on his ability. But if Girardi is so good with pitchers, shouldn't he be getting those upper limit results?

Again, where's the evidence Joe has a knack for working with pitchers?

Given his track record, does Girardi really deserve four out of five checks for pitching staff?

And if Girardi isn't good at handling pitchers, what's the point?

Sunday, October 21, 2007

This sounds crazy but... I think the Royals might know what they're doing!

Until a man reaches, say, 35, we all hide this sneaking suspicion that we have some undiscovered talent for baseball.

For those of us who never picked up a glove or bat after our Little League days were over, we wonder: What would have happened if we had stuck with it? Maybe we could hit triple digits on a radar gun, or pick up the "red dot" of a slider. It's not like those are abilities that you find a use for in every day life. How would we know if we had them?

Or, even if we had played a little high school or even college ball, you can still convince yourself it'd all be different with just one little change somewhere. A coach makes a slight adjustment to your swing and suddenly you're Rod Carew. Or they draft you as an emergency reliever during a blow-out and see the erratic arm you displayed in outfield is a naturally sinking fastball when you're on the mound. Someone pushes you a little bit harder or not quite as much or whatever, and just like that, you would've been in Yankee Stadium.

It's a nice fantasy, until you reach the age when you can't get out of bed without everything hurting, and then you have to face the fact that, even if you were blessed with some hidden ability, it will remain buried somewhere between your pot belly and your love handles.

At that point, you stop fantasizing that you could be a professional baseball player. And then you begin fantasizing that you could run a professional baseball team.

Naturally, we'd all love to marry Jennifer Steinbrenner and take over the Yankees, but even in a fantasy, you have to be a little realistic. But hey, how about the Devil Rays? The Pirates? The Royals? Do the guys running those teams really know more about baseball than you or I? Probably -- not that you'd know it from the results.

So let's fantasize. Let's pretend the owner of one of those hopeless, hapless teams reads your blog and says, "You think you're so smart, young man? You can run my team. Good luck."

What would you do? And you can't just say you'd "sign Alex Rodriguez" or "trade some prospects for Brandon Webb." We're trying to be realistic here. A-Rod? You're the general manager of a small-market team with a tight-fisted owner. Webb? Sorry, you can't use the Jedi Mind Trick on your fellow GMs.

OK, so... how do you turn around a terrible franchise -- without spending a lot of money -- before your owner loses confidence and fires you?

I can think of two ways to do it. The first method, the conventional strategy, is to promote everybody from your farm system and hope for the best. Yes, we'll lose a lot of games at first, and along the way probably burn out a few guys who weren't really ready for The Show. But if we get lucky, maybe by the end of the second or third year, we'll have the core of a decent team, and then -- maybe -- we can convince the owner to splurge on some free agents and make a run at a pennant or two before we have to start over.

The advantage here is that it's safe. If it doesn't work, it's not your fault -- it's because your owner is too cheap, your farm system is too weak, your division is too good. You get fired after three or four years because you never made it to .500, but even so, you'll be credited with "developing" the half-dozen or so players who pan out as genuine Major Leaguers, even an All-Star or two. And people will say, "If only he had some payroll to work with, he'd be a good general manager." And you get another job in another front office.

But if it works, you're a genius -- you rebuilt a franchise from the ground up!

The first year you lose 100 games, but the next year you shock everybody and win 80. Your owner opens his wallet and says go get some free agents. Year 3, you almost win the Wild Card! And then, finally, the fourth year, it all comes together, the home-grown talent and high-priced free agents, you win the World Series! You quit and get hired by a real team, and the next sucker inherits a team about to lose all its young players to arbitration and saddled with all the overpriced contracts you signed the year before.

The second method, the Moneyball strategy, is to identify and sign undervalued players. The advantage, provided you're good at the identifying part, is that you can be reasonably competitive right away.

But remember, despite what John Sterling thinks, Moneyball is not a 200-page lecture on the importance of on-base percentage at the expense of all other considerations. Moneyball is about spotting undervalued commodities. And now that everybody is down with O-B-P (yeah you know me!), you have to dig a little deeper to identify guys who are cheap but good: Washed-up All-Stars who can still contribute in platoon roles or off the bench; catchers and middle infielders who can no longer field, but can still hit; guys coming off scary injuries or struggling with weight problems. Sign former prospects who never made it and guys you never heard of who lit up the Mexican League or Frontier League. Offer low-ball one-year contracts to the headcases, the malcontents and the cancers in the clubhouse and tell them it's their big chance to shove it to the other guys. Use the Rule 5 draft wisely -- while everyone else is fighting over the pitchers with incredible stuff but can't throw strikes, claim low-cost solutions for your bullpen and bench. And promote from within, but carefully, making sure no one arrives as a savior or is thrown in as cannon fodder.

The problem with this strategy is, at least at first, you will look like an idiot. Nobody else wanted those guys for a reason. Your first deal is to give up a no-name minor leaguer for Michael Barrett and cash, and on ESPN they make jokes about your pitchers needing to take boxing lessons in case he wants to fight them in the dugout. You sign Jon Lieber to a bargain-basement one-year contract, and some a-hole blogger like me opines maybe you didn't know he missed half the season with an injury. You buy Victor Rodriguez from the Newark Bears and sports talk radio callers say, "Real teams get A-Rod -- we get V-Rod!" You claim Tomokazu Ohka off the scrap heap and convert him to a reliever, and sportswriters ask why you think a guy who can't get people out at the beginning of a game will be able to get them out at the end.

If it doesn't work out -- let's say Barrett punches out Lieber, causing him to miss the rest of the season, while the only guy Ohka can get out is V-Rod -- and you've just proven that all those people are smarter than you. Instead of making it to your third or fourth season, you get fired midway through your second year. And executives in other front offices won't even look at your resume. You can't even apply for a job outside of baseball without some human resources guy saying, "Hey, you're that guy who wasted all that money on Joey Eischen, right?" Well, actually, it was a league-minimum contract and- "Joey Eischen! What the hell were you thinking?"

And even if at first it does work out? It may not look like a success to the outside world. Remember, you're trying to be rebuild a franchise -- the goal is to be competitive for the next decade, not just this year -- and that may mean taking one step back in order to take two forward. Not everyone will like that.

Let's say a couple of the veterans on short-term contracts make good: At the end of June, Barrett hasn't punched anybody and is hitting .300 with an .800 OPS; you trade him for a top catching prospect and now they're howling on sports talk radio. "Our only good hitter and he trades him for some minor leaguer!" Ohka is pitching lights out in the middle innings, and Peter Gammons wonders why you won't use him to replace a struggling rookie in the rotation. "What's the point of having a good reliever if you never have a lead?" All the sportswriters in your town want you to call up some kid who is crushing the ball in Double-A, but you won't do it after hearing he's afraid to leave his hotel room on road trips. "Why won't they promote this guy and let him get some experience?"

So obviously, while the second strategy is a lot riskier, I think it's the right way to go. And more and more, I'm convinced it's what the Royals are doing.

Despite having finished last in the A.L. Central for the fourth straight year, and despite posting just one winning record (83-79 in 2003) since the strike-shortened '94 season -- hell, they haven't been to the post-season since winning the World Series in '85 -- I think GM Dayton Moore is moving the Royals in the right direction. They didn't panic when Alex Gordon was hitting .185 after his first two months in the majors; he hit .275 the rest of the way. They didn't rush good-hit, no-field prospect Billy Butler to the majors and force him into the outfield; instead, they waited for Mike Sweeney's inevitable injury so he could ease in as a DH. They took cheap fliers on no-names like Joakim Soria and has-beens like Brandon Duckworth. They signed Octavio Dotel, let him pick up some saves and then shipped him off to the Braves. They turned Ambiorix Burgos into Brian Bannister and J.P. Howell into Joey Gathright. I thought signing Gil Meche was insanity and the guy posts a 3.67 ERA and 1.296 WHIP.

I really like that he hired former Yankee minor league manager Trey Hillman. I don't know much about Hillman, but I'm sure, after 12 years as a manager from the New York Penn League to Triple A, he knows how to handle young players. He also led the Nippon Ham Fighters to the playoffs in three out of his five seasons and won the Japan Series last year.

So, as I said, I don't know much about Hillman. Why, then, do I think he's a smart hire? Because he's not Larry Bowa or Lee Mazzilli or any of the other re-treads they could have hired. He's not the safe choice. They could have hired Jamie Quirk (or any other random Royal from the mid-70s to mid-80s) and made a lot of people in Kansas City happy, and if it didn't work out, no one would blame Moore. Instead, he went out and found a smart guy who is liked by smart people.

Ordinarily, as a Yankee fan, I wouldn't give a shit either way about what the Royals are doing. It's not that I hate them; it's just been about 20 years since I've had to worry about them. (To quote Scrubs, "I don't hate you. I nothing you.") So, speaking as an objective observer, I think they're making the right moves and heading in the right direction. Rebuilding the right way isn't easy -- it's a long, slow, painful process. But I think they're doing it right. Next year they might be flirting with .500; the year after that, maybe even a Central Division title. If they pull it off, remember you read it here first.

If they don't... blame Dayton Moore. What an idiot!

Monday, October 15, 2007

Welcome to the 2007 New York Jets


Top 10 things overheard while watching the Jets this season:
10. "That pass was woefully underthrown." (Woefully Underthrown is also the subtitle fo the 2007 NFL films Jets video)
9. "Are there 5 teams in the NFL with worse quarterbacks than Chad Pennington?"
8."Vinny Testaverde won a game in the NFL today, how did we not resign him?"
7. "Truly terrible... that pass was truly terrible"
6. "Good f-ing G-d he is going to get Coles and Cotchery killed before this game is over."
5. "Mangenious? More like Mangina."
4. "How do they NOT start Kellen Clemens next week?" (repeated at the end of every game)
3. "Doesn't matter if we get the first overall pick. This is the Jets, you know whoever they pick is going to suck."
2. "Pennington's mind is writing checks his arm can't cash"
1. "Kind of makes you miss Ken O'Brien"

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

OK, that didn't work

Four months 'til pitchers and catchers report!

That sucked. Chien-Ming Wang gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and couldn't get an out in the second inning, forcing a switch to Mike Mussina. And while Moose wasn't great (2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB in 4.2 IP, plus he allowed two of Wang's inherited runners to score), he kept the score reasonable. The final score, 6-4, makes it look like it was a nailbiter, but it really wasn't. It was a frustrating, slow, agonizing game. The Yankees had 12 hits, including three home runs and a double, plus 3 walks, but left 10 men on base. Bleh.

Derek Jeter went 2-for-5 with an RBI, but killed us in the bottom of the 6th, grounding into a 4-6-3 double play. The Yankees had runners on the corners and one out; just a fly ball would've made it a three-run game with three innings yet to play. Alex Rodriguez also went 2-for-5 with an RBI (a solo home run in the 7th), but he also came up empty in a big spot, striking out with two on and one out in the bottom of the 1st.

The Yankees teased you a little bit in the bottom of the 9th, as the Indians went to Joe Borowski. After Jeter popped out, Bobby Abreu hit a shot into the upper deck to make it 6-4. "A bloop and a blast" as John Sterling says, incessantly. But no bloops were to be had. A-Rod flew out to right, and then it all came down to Jorge Posada, who in any other year would be every Yankee fan's MVP candidate. Posada drove one down the right field line and Sterling gave us a classic "It is high! It is far! It is... foul!" Then Posada struck out swinging to end it.

Inning over... game over... American League Division Series over... the Indians win, the Indians win.

There's plenty of blame to go around. The list is shorter of guys you can't blame: Robinson Cano (.333, 1.175 OPS), Johnny Damon (.278, .927) and Bobby Abreu (.267, .886), and Andy Pettitte (0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6.1 IP), Phil Hughes (1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5.2 IP) and Mariano Rivera (0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4.2 IP). You can add Moose in there if you want. Joba Chamberlain has ugly numbers (2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3.2 IP) but he deserves a pass as all the damage happened in the freakish bug bowl of Game 2 and in his second inning in Game 3, when the game was already won.

So, who's the goat? The two obvious candidates, as always, are A-Rod and Torre.

Blame A-Rod! He didn't come through in the clutch in a couple big spots. But his overall line isn't bad (.267, .820), and considering how much worse some of the other hitters are, it's a real stretch to blame him. Yankee haters always have something to say about Rodriguez -- no matter what he does, they try to talk about him. If he has a horrible night, they kill A-Rod; if he has a great night, they kill Yankee fans for not loving A-Rod enough. But for this particular series anyway, there's just not that much to say. He got some hits, and he made some outs. He's not the story, but some people will try to make him the story anyway.

The rest of the lineup? The Yankees collectively hit .228 and stranded all those runners on base, so let's blame the batters. But which one? Melky Cabrera hit just .188 but he did have the only big hit against Fausto Carmona, and he was great in the field. Matsui had only 2 hits in 11 at-bats, but he also drew 5 walks, so who's going to fault a .438 OBP. Doug Mientkiewicz went 0-for-6 but if you're relying on Minky for offense, you're doomed. Jason Giambi only had 1 hit, but he also had just 4 ABs.

No, if you're going to blame a batter, it's got to be Jeter or Posada. After having great regular seasons, each was really awful in the playoffs. Jeter went 3-for-17 with 3 GIDPs and probably should have been charged with an error in Game 3, but the Yankees won that game anyway. Posada went 2-for-15 and was charged with one passed ball and probably deserved another that went down as a wild pitch to Joba. But you might have a hard time finding a Yankee fan willing to pin anything on either Derek or Georgie, who are not just True Yankees, but were two-thirds of the foundation of the 1996-2001 dynasty.

Blame Torre! Sure, why not? Maybe he could have pulled Wang earlier in Game 1, after the 4th inning, when the Yankees were down 4-3 and had just missed an opportunity to regain the lead (bases loaded, one out, no runs). Maybe he could have delayed Game 2 long enough for the bugs to disperse, or switch to a less tasty reliever. Or I can be a total hypocrite and say he was wrong for starting Wang in Game 4. Hey, I didn't want to bring him back last year so I'm certainly not advocating he be brought back for next year, but in this series, I don't think you can blame Torre.

And how can you fault Torre for how he handled Wang, but not Wang himself? I'm not sure if he's hurt or wore down or if the Indians just had his number, but Wang looked flat-out awful out there. Hell, the Yankee team ERA with Wang was 5.89, without him was 3.48. The Indians team ERA in the series was 3.41. Wang's pre- and post-All-Star break numbers suggest something happened over the second half (3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP vs 4.07 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). But again, Wang, as a True Yankee, might not catch a lot of flak. You can try to blame Roger Clemens (3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 2.1 IP), but the Yankees won that game anyway. Luis Vizcaino blew Game 2, but how do you blame him and not Joba? Ross Ohlendorff coughed up some big runs in Game 1, but again, you can't blame him but not Wang.

The bottom line: Ah, what the fuck. Blame A-Rod and Torre anyway. They won't be here next year.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Well, I think this is good news...

Joe Torre announced after last night's win that today's starter would be Chien-Ming Wang on three days' rest and not Mike Mussina. If we get to a Game 5, Andy Pettitte will be able to pitch on full rest (because of the day off tomorrow).

Torre was criticized last year for not trying this during the Detroit series. In Game 1, Wang was good but not great -- he gave up 3 runs on 8 hits and a walk -- but the Yankees won, 8-4.

Four days later, the Yankees were down 2 games to 1 and at Comerica Park, and there was talk of bringing back Wang on three days' rest. Wang had thrown 93 pitches in 6.2 innings, so it wasn't out of the question that he could come back. Once again, there would be a travel day between Games 4 and 5, so the Game 2 starter -- Mussina, coincidentally -- would be available on the normal four days rest to pitch the final game, if the Yankees got there.

Only Joe knows why, but this was dismissed as a possibility and instead we relied on the trusty arm of Jaret Wright to carry us through Game 4. Nice. Wright was pounded for 4 runs on 5 hits (2 home runs) in just 2.2 innings, and that's all she wrote.

Torre and his defenders (particularly Suzyn Waldman) are big on the "but then who" argument whenever you talk about doing anything unJoe-like. When the Yankees lose a tie game on the road after he trots out Ron Villone to pitch the bottom of the 9th, if you ask Joe, hey, maybe Mariano Rivera could have pitched there, he'll ask: "But then who pitches the bottom of the 10th?" Huh. Well, now that you mention it, yeah, Villone solved that problem for us by blowing the game in the bottom of the 9th.

Of course he can't admit it, but I'm thinking last year Torre was already thinking about the next series, which of course you can never do. He figured, "I can use Wang in Game 4 and Mussina in Game 5, but then who pitches Game 1?" So he figured he'd patch through Game 4 with Wright and Cory Lidle, and that went as well as could be expected.

The difference is, this post-season, Torre is managing with a gun to his head -- literally, if they take my advice -- and that's why he was so quick to pull Roger Clemens, why he burned up Joba Chamberlain for 2 innings, why he used Mariano Rivera with a 4-run lead, why he benched Mussina today for Wang. He's managing like a guy who understands that, in an elimination game, you don't have to worry about tomorrow until you get there. Survive and move on, as they say in the NCAAs.

Despite the fact that Wang got pounded by the Indians in Game 1, I'm confident we'll get a better performance this time. There's that whole "tired is better for sinkerballers" argument, which, who knows if it's true or not. Wang hasn't pitched on three days' rest this year (or last year), so it's hard to reasonably make that argument.

But more importantly, Wang was a lot better at home (10-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) than on the road (9-3, 4.91, 1.50 WHIP), so I'd rather start him on short rest at Yankee Stadium tonight. And it also works for Game 5 -- Pettitte, somewhat surprisingly for a lefty, is actually slightly worse at Yankee Stadium (8-4, 4.17, 1.44) than on the road (7-5, 3.95, 1.41).

This makes sense all around. So much so, that I'm surprised Joe thought of it. The barrel of a .45 pressed firmly against his temple may have had something to do with it.

See what a little motivation can do?

One thing to watch out for -- Joe loves to prove to his guys that they're still "his guys." If Wang can't get us to the 7th inning, expect to see Mussina.

The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat

As one of those rare Yankee/Packer fan hybrids -- what can I say, I like teams that won a lot before I was born -- it was a mixed night for me.

The Yankees won, of course, to stave off elimination and play at least one more game in 2007. That was good.

The Packers, of course, blew a 10-point lead to lose to the hated Bears to ruin their perfect season.

I know a guy from Philadelphia, so naturally he is both a Phillies fan and an Eagles fan. Last Monday, I asked him if he was up (from the Phillies making the post-season) or down (from the Eagles losing to the Giants).

He thought about it for a little bit, then started trying to rationalize that he was up, but then he just sighed. "Goddamn it! Couldn't they have given me just one day to enjoy the moment?!"

I know a little better now where he was coming from, but I'm up, I'm up. If you told me in July that the Packers would be 4-1 and the Yankees would be in the post-season, I'd be a happy camper.

The Packers lost the type of game they'd been winning the first four games of the season. All the lucky breaks they got to get to 4-0 were here tonight -- for the Bears. Charles Woodson fumbles a punt and it bounces right into the hands of the punter, of all people, and he grabs it just before he slides out of bounds. Brett Favre does some kind of crazy no-look pass and throws it right into the arms of Brian Urlacher. The Bears go up on a touchdown pass that is caught out of bounds, but the officials rule it a push-out and, for god knows why, that's not a reviewable play. And speaking of reviewable plays, Mike McCarthy throws the red flag to challenge a spot, wins the challenge... or not. The announcers never seemed to figure this out. All I know is the officials picked up the ball and moved it back, which sounds like you won the challenge, right? But they didn't move it back far enough for it not to be a first down, so apparently he lost the challenge. In other words, yes, we made a mistake, but no, we didn't.

And then on top of the five turnovers, all those penalties -- 93 yards in penalties, and at killer times too. The Packers racked up 150 more yards of offense, but all for naught.

But at the end of the game, if Donald Driver jumps an inch higher, it's all tied up.

Yeah, so we could be 5-0, but then we could have just as easily lost the Eagles game or even the Giants game, and be 2-3. We're a good but not great team -- a better team than the Bears, but not tonight. Next week we're home against a 3-1 Redskins team that just beat the holy hell out of the Lions. We'll see which was the fluke, the first four or the last one.

As for the Yankees, win tomorrow and send the series back to Cleveland -- where the forecast for Wednesday night is high 50s and rain, not exactly good conditions for midges. Win tomorrow and try again with Chien-Ming Wang against C.C. Sabathia. Hopefully Wang will figure out whatever was wrong with him in Game 1, and hopefully the Yankee batters can figure out why they couldn't put away Sabathia, a guy we had on the ropes more than Rocky Balboa against Clubber Lang.



But unfortunately it was Rocky/Clubber II. Just like Clubber we kept going for the big knock-out punch but swinging and missing.

Before we can start thinking about Wednesday, we have to win tomorrow, and even with Paul Byrd pitching, it won't be easy. We won't have Phil Hughes (3.2 innings, 63 pitches) or Joba Chamberlain (2.0 innings, 38 pitches), which means the bullpen is going to be short-handed tomorrow night if Mike Mussina can't get us through the 6th inning.

Yes, you could say we needed to win tonight to get to tomorrow, but what the fuck, Joe Torre? You had a 5-run lead, why did you send Joba back out there to pitch the 8th? You don't think that was a good time to play sports psychologist with Kyle Farnsworth? Maybe let Russ Ohlendorf get back on the horse after getting slapped around in Game 1? Oh, no, let's burn up Joba. More great work from one of the winningest managers in MLB history.

Of course, Joe has a lot more confidence in Moose than I do, because Joe just loves his veterans. Johnny Damon after the game tonight was asked if it mattered that Torre's job was supposedly on the line tonight and he said something along the lines of, "We'll do anything for Joe." Hey, how about win some games in May and June, Johnny? Those games counted too, you know.

Well, obviously there's only one thing for Big Stein to do before tomorrow's game: Threaten to fire Joe again. Or, better yet, have a sniper in the owner's box with orders to shoot Torre in the head if the Yankees lose. Obviously it's the only way to motivate these guys. Win the game, or your beloved manager dies.

Can't you just picture Joe sitting there with the red dot of a laser sight bouncing over his forehead? Actually, he'd probably have his usual hang-dog look, staring at the ground, mumbling to himself and pounding down the green tea.

Bigelow Tea. Producer of fine quality teas since 1945. "Your bases are covered... with Bigelow Tea."

Monday, September 17, 2007

Go Pack Go!

As you might recall, I'm a Packer fan. But living in Jersey, it's rare I get to see my Packers in action. So while everyone else in the Greater New York Area was bemoaning how bad the Giants looked yesterday, I was loving the green and gold.

Looking at the final score, 35-13, you would think this was a blow-out and the Giants took out a beat-up Eli Manning sometime before half-time. But actually it looked like the game could go either way -- the Packers were losing 10-7 at the half, and it was 14-13 Packers at the end of the third quarter.

But then in the fourth quarter, Favre and Driver hooked up on two TDs two minutes apart to make it 28-13, and then DeShawn Wynn (who?) broke off a 38-yard TD run in garbage time to make it 35-13.

So, yeah, we're 2-0, against two opponents - Philly and the Giants on the road -- that aren't gimmes. But as much as I would like to look at our start through cheese-framed glasses, we've been pretty lucky so far. Heck, we could be 0-2 right now.

We weren't out-played by the Eagles by any stretch, it was a sloppy game that either game could have won. And despite the final score the game against the Giants, it could have been a lot closer or even a loss. Remember, it was 14-13 at the start of the fourth quarter. Favre continues a methodical drive that started from their own 20, with 4:22 left in the third quarter. It was just a perfect drive -- Favre goes 8-for-8, hitting four different guys, and caps it off with a short pass to Donald Lee for the score to make it 21-13. Nice.

But it's still an 8-point game with almost 13 minutes left, and the Packers are kicking off. After that drive I was pretty confident we could hold on, but the outcome was still in doubt. For about two seconds. Because Ahmad Bradshaw fumbles the kick off, there's a scrum, and the Packers come up with the ball. Ninety seconds later there's another Favre TD and now it's 28-13, and it's time to start the parade of cars leaving the Meadowlands.

Now, if the Giants come away with the ball, it's not like they were a sure thing -- on their next possession, Manning threw a ball right into the hands of defensive tackle Corey Williams (who seemed as surprised as anyone in the stadium to catch it). But after the muffed kick made it a 15-point lead, the G-men were in serious trouble.

I love being 2-0, but let's face it, it's the second week in a row where the Packers won a game by coming away with the ball from the bottom of a pile of players. You can say the fight over a fumble is "who wants it more", and I suppose that's part of it, but it's also about luck. The ball is squibbing all around, everyone's got a finger on it, it gets yanked back and forth, guys are biting and pinching and punching, and it's all about who is holding the ball at the moment when a ref throws off enough players to see what's going on. Two seconds earlier or two seconds later, it might be in someone else's hands, and he's the one who "wanted it more."

It's a hell of a way to win a football game and not exactly something you can count on from week to week, especially not for a third week in a row and especially not heading into a game against the San Diego Chargers. But let's hope the defense keeps playing as well as it has been, the offense keeps clicking the way it did in the second half, and that the ball keeps bouncing our way.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Theme Team: 'No, The Other One'

Remember Agent Johnson and Special Agent Johnson from Die Hard? ("No relation.")

One of them answers a phone call a little later:

"This is Agent Johnson. (sigh) No, the other one."



Well, recently I've seen some names in boxscores that have made me say, "hey wait a minute, isn't that..." And, if Agent Johnson was here, he'd say, "No, the other one."

Names are funny things. You grow up thinking you've got this unique designation, and then you Google yourself and discover some other a-holes are using your name! It's even worse for baseball players, as we know the name of almost every man who has stepped on the field for more than 100 years. In fact, if you have the same name as another player, we can tell you apart through middle names, dates of birth or even by height and weight. We know, for example, that the Joe Smith on the 2007 Mets is not the same Joe Smith who was on the 1913 Yankees. Go figure!

In addition to those who share the names of historic or current baseball players, there are those players who have the names of famous people. Sometimes it's just bad luck -- the pitcher Kenny Rogers was already 12 years old when the singer Kenny Rogers released The Gambler. But come on, Milton Bradley? Howard Johnson?

I wanted to make a team of all these same-name guys, but it would be kind of boring just to point out all the guys with very common names, like Carlos Martinez (four currently in professional baseball) or Ben Johnson (three). I also didn't find it all that interesting to remind people that there was a player 50 years ago named Frank Thomas or a mediocre pitcher 15 years ago named Cris Carpenter. And as for guys who named after their baseball-playing dads -- like Fernando Valenzuela Jr., Frank Viola III or Wally Backman II -- that's too easy.

No, the guys on this Theme Team are rookies and minor leaguers whose names will make you go, "hey, is that...?" When play-by-play guys are tripping all over themselves pointing out that the Royals have a reliever named Billy Buckner, you'll already know about him!

Batters:

C CRAIG MADDOX, Detroit Tigers. Yeah, Craig Maddox. It's like a company selling a knock-off cereal called Cheery Whoas or Raisin Grand. It would be a funnier if he was a mediocre pitcher instead of a mediocre catcher; he's hitting .250 (.722 OPS) in Rookie ball this year.

1B ERNIE BANKS, Florida Marlins. OK, what was the thinking here? I'm not sure if they named him Ernie Banks as an homage or as a joke or if they were just clueless. He's apparently not related... Anyway, this Ernie Banks is a 21-year-old first baseman drafted in June by the Marlins out of Norfolk State University. He has his career off to an OK start, hitting .319 with a .372 OBP in 72 ABs in Rookie ball, but he has to do something about improving that .375 slugging percentage if he's going to catch "Mr. Cub" and his 512 career HRs. Oh, and how's this for weird: The 2007 MEAC Baseball All-Tournament Team included Ernie Banks and Darryl Evans, who plays for Florida A&M.

2B BOBBY HILL, San Diego Padres. It's kind of a cheat having him on the list, as the jokes about his name have all been made before. But I must admit I am a huge fan of Bobby Hill, both the infielder and the cartoon character. Anyway, the White Sox drafted Bobby Hill in 1999, but super agent Scott Boras told him to play in the independent Atlantic League instead. I saw a few Newark Bears games in 2000 with the 22-year-old Hill playing shortstop, and I said, "Boy howdy, I tell you what!" He hit .326 (.933 OPS) with 101 walks and 81 stolen bases in 132 games. But he never really got a chance in the bigs. His career MLB numbers (.262/.343/.350 in 523 AB) aren't so awful that you'd think he couldn't make it at least as a switch-hitting utility infielder, but I'm sure the hold out didn't make him many friends in front offices. He hit .282/.396/.395 in Triple-A last year but hasn't been heard from since.

3B EVAN LONGORIA, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. One of the top prospects in baseball, no one is likely to confuse him with Eva Longoria, but it's a good excuse for me to run a picture of her. Sports Illustrated had the same idea, as they did a Tale of the Tape comparing Evan to Eva. Evan Longoria says he's heard all the jokes. "I get ragged on it a lot but I don't mind. My friends and I think she's hot." Longoria lived up to the hype this year, hitting .307/.403/.528 in 381 ABs in Double-A and .288/.411/.507 in Triple-A. As for Eva, she's starring in Over My Dead Body with Jason Biggs and Lake Bell. Who do you think had the better year?

SS ALBERTO GONZALEZ, New York Yankees. How about this guy, huh? You're going through life with a perfectly fine Latino name, and then you hear, hey, my almost namesake, Alberto Gonzales, is going to be attorney general, that's cool. The next thing you know, bam! You're getting booed in every liberal town. Anyway, this Alberto Gonzalez hit .330/.385/.440 in 109 ABs with Double-A Trenton before being promoted to Triple-A Scranton, where he's struggled (.241/.298/.358 in 344 AB)... As an aside, there are no major or minor leaguers named Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld, but there is a catcher at Morehead State named Donald Cheney (.274/.383/.457 in 175 AB this year).

LF DEE BROWN, Washington Nationals. What's worse, to be Tim Brown or Dee Brown? Would you rather have a relatively common name that you share with a famous person, or an unusual name that you share with someone only vaguely familiar? No one will think the white first baseman used to play for the Oakland Raiders, but everyone is going to assume the outfielder trying to work his way up through the Nationals system is the washed-up Royals prospect. The original Dee Brown was highly touted at one time -- he was a first round pick in '96, and the Kansas City Royals Minor League Player of the Year in 1999 -- but he's never hit in the bigs, with a career .234/.280/.334 line in 812 ABs. Now 29, he's played for seven different organizations, most recently the Oakland A's. This Dee Brown -- actually named Willie D. Brown, but he goes by Dee Brown -- is a 24-year-old outfielder drafted in the 10th round two years ago out of the University of Central Florida. He put up some decent numbers in the Carolina League (.284/.369/.404 in 225 AB) but has struggled after getting moved up to Double-A (.250/.311/.339 in 168 ABs).

CF CHRIS B. YOUNG, Arizona Diamondbacks. You would think there'd be a lot of players with this name, but actually the only two guys named Chris Young in the history of Major League Baseball are both active. When two players with the same name come up at the same time, they're linked forever. Remember Alex Gonzalez and Alex Gonzalez, Brian Hunter and Brian Hunter, Bobby Jones and Bobby Jones? In most of those other cases, though, one player was good -- OK, mediocre -- and the other one was bad. Here, we have two guys who could both be stars for years to come; at least in this case, one's a pitcher and the other's a hitter. Chris R. Young is the right-handed pitcher with the Padres, now in his fourth season; the 28-year-old is 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and made his first All-Star Game this year. Chris B. Young is the 23-year-old rookie outfielder with the Diamondbacks, hitting .234 (.758 OPS) but with 28 HR and 21 SB in 458 AB. Just to make things interesting, there's a 26-year-old right-handed reliever in the Marlins system named Chris M. Young; he's 0-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.80 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A this year.

RF MICHAEL MYERS, Chicago White Sox. Not only does this guy have to contend with left-handed reliever Mike Myers, but now the Halloween remake is coming out, and this guy goes all the way and calls himself Michael Myers. Not sure if he wears the weird mask while he plays. Michael Felipe Myers is a 27-year-old outfielder with the Double-A Birmingham Barons, where he is hitting a Michael Jordan-esque .185/.279/.263 in 270 ABs. It doesn't look like this Michael Myers will be terrorizing big league pitchers any time soon.

DH JOSH JOHNSON, Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Until 2005, there had never been a Major Leaguer named Joshua Johnson. Then there was one -- the Marlins pitcher who missed most of this year after undergoing elbow surgery. And in a few years, we might have three more to cause confusion. The closest one to the majors is Josh N. Johnson, a 24-year-old catcher in the Devil Rays system. Josh N. is hitting .276/.324/.418 in 98 AB with the Triple-A Durham Bulls this year; in Double-A last year, he hit .313/.397/.478 in 67 AB. They've also tried him at first, second and outfield, which leads me to believe he may not have a future as a major league catcher, so we'll use him at DH. Then there's Josh R. Johnson, a second baseman in the Royals system. Josh R. is hitting .253 but with a .354 OBP with the Class A Wilmington Blue Rocks. And now there's a third one in the pipeline, just known as Joshua Johnson, who went 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts and 2 relief appearances for Tampa Bay's New York-Penn League affiliate.

Bench:

C JOSE REYES, New York Mets. The Mets have cornered the market on Jose Reyeses. They started out with shortstop Jose B. Reyes, and then this year they added catcher Jose A. Reyes. In the history of Major League Baseball, there are two guys named Jose Reyes -- both are switch hitters, both are from the Dominican Republic and both are in the Mets organization. Even though Jose B. is now in his fifth major league season, he's only eight months older than Jose A. (This reminds me of that corny joke about the Puerto Rican firefighter who named his first kid Jose and his second kid Hose B.) Anyway, Jose the Catcher Reyes started out in the Chicago Cubs organization as an 18-year-old kid, and so far has proven he can't hit at seven different levels of professional baseball. He even got 5 at-bats with the Cubs last year (he had a single, 2 RBIs and 3 strikeouts). So far with Double-A Binghamton, he's hitting .214 (.609 OPS). It doesn't like there will be a problem in figuring out which Jose Reyes is which.

1B TIM BROWN, San Diego Padres. In true "No... the other one" fashion, this Tim Brown is a 6-foot-3, 220 pound white first baseman. He is currently hitting .269/.351/.423 with 12 HR and 45 RBI (and 0 SB) in 324 AB... There's no one in the minors named Jerry Rice or Cris Carter, though there are two guys named Chris Carter, and each does something other than catch touchdowns.

SS STEPHEN KING, Washington Nationals. Lazy baseball columnists can't wait for this guy to get to the majors, so they can trot out all their puns -- he'll either be "scary good" or "scary bad." Both the novelist Stephen King and the shortstop Stephen King use the "ph" spelling. The baseball player is just 19 years old, but he was ranked the No. 9 prospect in the Nationals system by Baseball America. This year, he hit .224/.295/.375 in 304 at-bats between Rookie ball and the Sally League.

IF/OF RICHARD LEWIS, Kansas City Royals. This guy must be fun during away games in the Texas League. "Oh, could it get any hotter? I'm spritzing over here. This is the road trip from hell!" The comedian is Richard Philip Lewis; the utility man is Richard Hammond Lewis III. I would hazard a guess that they are not related. Lewis had a monster senior year at Georgia Tech in 2001 (.398/.464/.526) but so far in the minors he's hit just .259/.324/.363 in 2734 career ABs. He started out as a second baseman, but for the last couple seasons he's also been used at first, third, short and outfield as he apparently has realized he won't be able to hit his way to the majors. At 27, he may want to start working on his stand-up routine.

OF JUAN VALDES, Cleveland Indians. Burro not included.
To be fair, the coffee guy's name is spelled Juan Valdez. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia has been using him as a mascot since 1959, and this guy was born in Puerto Rico in 1985. Maybe his parents just figured, hey, so he'll like coffee, who cares? Actually there was a lawsuit regarding how common the name Juan Valdez is after a company started an ad campaign, "Juan Valdez drinks Costa Rican coffee." They argued they were talking about some other Juan Valdez. Paging Agent Johnson! (Actually, in baseball terms, it's not a popular name -- there has never been a Major Leaguer named Juan Valdez or Valdes.) This Juan Valdes is hitting .319 (.894 OPS) in 119 ABs in the New York-Penn League for the Indians.

Honorable mention: Bryan D. Anderson, a Cardinals catcher in Double-A joining the Brian N. Anderson and Brian J. Anderson competition; the Rockies infielder or either of the two minor leaguers named Luis Gonzalez; Carlos Santana, an outfielder in A-Ball for the Dodgers; and Derrick Thomas, a catcher who went 3-for-4 in 5 games in the Pioneer League for the Angels this year.

Starting Rotation:

SP BILLY BUCKNER, Kansas City Royals. Perhaps the greatest "No... the other one" in the history of baseball. I mean, Billy Buckner? He could at least go by Will or Liam or W.J. or something! I guess people would figure it out anyway, so you might as well get it out of the way: "Yeah, I'm Billy Buckner. No relation." He is named William Jennings Buckner, apparently named after "The Great Commoner," William Jennings Bryan. Buckner was only 3 years old during Game 6, so he had no idea how it would change his life. Luckily he's from Georgia; imagine if this poor kid grew up New England, he probably would've been beaten to death in middle school. This Billy Buck went 9-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP as a swingman (15 starts, 12 relief appearances) with Omaha -- not bad numbers for the Pacific Coast League. So far he's pitched in one game in the bigs and he's given up 4 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits in 2.0 innings. I can't wait for him to pitch in Yankee Stadium some day so the crowd can bring back the "BILL-EE BUCK-NER!" chant that had to be retired after the 2004 post-season.



SP DEREK LEE, Texas Rangers. I finally learned to spell Derrek Lee with two Rs, and now here comes one-R Derek Lee to screw things up. His name is really Robert Derek Lee, but I guess he didn't want to go through life with everyone asking if his middle initial was "E", so he went with Derek. Really, parents, if your name is Lee and you insist on naming your son Robert, why not go all the way and go with the middle name Edward? Robert D. Lee is just going to wind up getting in trouble with Ulysses F. Grant and Dwight B. Eisenhower. Anyway, this Derek Lee isn't much of a prospect -- he's 33 years old and has been bumping around in the minors since 1997 without ever making it to the show. The closest he came was one Spring Training game in 2006 -- and they took him out after just one third of an inning. That's just cruel. Anyway, his minor league numbers aren't that bad (71-73, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP in 1.299.0 IP; 1-2 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 6 games this year), plus he's left-handed, so he could be coming soon to a stadium near you.

SP NICK GREEN, Los Angeles Angels. It ain't easy being the "real" Nick Green, the utility infielder who spent three years in the bigs with three teams, hitting .243/.312/.351 in 696 AB. Now it will get even harder as one day he could be vaguely remembered as that other Nick Green. Nicholas Alvin Green is a 23-year-old right-hander who has moved quickly through the Angels system, going 10-6 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in Double-A this year; if he keeps that up, it won't be long before we forget all about Nicholas Anthony Green.

SP RAY LIOTTA, Chicago White Sox. He was 7 years old when "Goodfellas" came out, so basically he has spent his entire life being asked, "any relation?" Actually, yes. The 24-year-old left-hander is "a distant cousin on his dad's side" of the actor, who played Shoeless Joe Jackson in "Field of Dreams." Raymond J. Liotta got pounded last year in the Carolina League (1-6, 8.08 ERA, 1.91 WHIP) but was slightly better in Double-A (3-8, 4.93 ERA, 1.60 WHIP). The other Ray Liotta also had a bad year (did you watch any episodes of Smith"? No, of course you didn't -- nobody did.)



SP ERIC STULTS, Los Angeles Dodgers. Hey, it's the guy from Mask! In one of those strange twists of fate that always happen in Hollywood, Eric Stoltz was cast as Marty McFly in Back to the Future, and they even started filming with him, but then Michael J. Fox agreed to do the movie and the rest was history. The first time I really noticed Stoltz was as Simon the Angel in The Prophecy, a very underrated movie, and I thought he'd be a star, but not so much. Well, maybe the banner will be picked up by Eric Stults, a 27-year-old lefty who is 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in three starts and four relief appearances with the Dodgers this year. In Las Vegas -- a hitter's park in a hitter's league -- Stults was hammered to the tune of a 7.56 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 17 starts and 4 relief appearances.

SP MICHAEL MADSEN, Oakland Athletics. What's up with all the starting pitchers named after actors? You put together Eric Stults and Ray Liotta with Michael Madsen, you've got either a bad starting rotation or a hell of a movie. Michael Madsen the actor, like Ray Liotta, also played a baseball player -- he was Bump Bailey in The Natural. This Michael Madsen has risen quickly through the A's organization, jumping up from High A to Double-A to Triple-A this year. He was great at the first two levels (3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), not so much at the third (5.47, 1.46).

Bullpen:

RP EDGAR MARTINEZ, Boston Red Sox. The opposite of the real Edgar Martinez, Edgar R. Martinez was a good-field, no-hit catcher who was so bad offensively -- his career minor league numbers were .223/.282/.298, and he never got above Double-A -- they finally converted him to a reliever. The right-hander was good for a couple years, including a nice run as the closer for the Portland Sea Dogs last year (2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18 BB, 59 K in 69.0 IP), but he's struggled in Triple-A (4.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26 BB, 54 K in 63.0 IP). Still, it seems likely we'll see Edgar Martinez again some day, and in true karmic justice, the man who terrorized pitchers for all those years comes back as a pitcher himself.

RP JAVIER LOPEZ, Boston Red Sox. Wow, the Red Sox have Edgar Martinez and Javier Lopez? The 1997 All-Star team called, they want their players back! I'm sure you've already heard of the other J-Lo, Javier A. Lopez, a left-handed reliever now with the Red Sox. I had an actual "No, the other one" moment a few years ago when I saw a sports brief headlined "Javier Lopez traded to Rockies." It must have been a slow news day. Anyway, I stopped reading the story after the headline and brought it up to a fellow roto-geek at work, causing a few minutes of excited conversation about the Coors Field effect before I read the rest of the story and realized, oh, it's the reliever. Javier A. Lopez is having a pretty good year (2.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 32.2 IP), while Javy Lopez is as far as I know out of baseball. Now if someone told you the Rockies just got Javier Lopez, you'd say: "The reliever?"

RP MARK McLEMORE, Houston Astros. This one's a real mind-boggler. In the history of baseball, there have been just two guys named McLemore -- both with the first name Mark. Mark T. McLemore played for seven teams over 19 years in the big leagues, making his debut in 1986 as a 21-year-old second baseman with the California Angels. In 6,192 at-bats, he hit .259/.349/.341, playing mostly second, but also outfield, third and short. Six years before Mark T. made his debut in Anaheim, Mark S. McLemore was born in Sacramento. The left-handed reliever made the show for the first time this year, posting a 3.24 ERA (but with a 1.56 WHIP) in 25.0 IP, with 25 K but also 11 BB. In Triple-A this year, he had a 2.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 52 Ks in 52.0 IP, but also 35 BB. As is seemingly required when two players share the same unusual name, Mark T. is black and Mark S. is white.

RP RYAN BRAUN, Kansas City Royals. Ryan Joseph Braun is regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball. The 23-year-old third baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers is hitting .332/.377/.640 in his debut season. Ryan Zachary Braun has not only the same name, but came up at the same time, making it inevitable that he will forever be known as "the bad Ryan Braun." The 27-year-old right handed reliever has been getting pounded this year (1-0, 0 SV, 6.67 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 28.3 IP), and it's unlikely we'll have to think of any Brauns but Ryan J. for much longer. Hopefully he will make it to interleague play next year, so he can face the other Ryan Braun.

RP SEAN GREEN, Seattle Mariners. If you misspell Shawn Green's name it might wind up going to this guy. Sean Green is a 28-year-old righthander is 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA (but 1.40 WHIP) in 44 relief appearances with Seattle this year.

RP JOSHUA FIELDS, Chicago White Sox. The Mets have two guys named Jose Reyes and the White Sox have two guys named Josh Fields. Joshua Dean Fields is the third baseman/outfielder with the big club, hitting .238/.292/.454 in 273 ABs; the other one, who is actually three years older, is Joshua Lee Fields, a right-handed reliever who this year went 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.56 WHIP between Rookie ball and Double-A. There's also a pitcher from the University of Georgia named Joshua Fields, but he refused to sign after being drafted by the Braves and will return to the Bulldogs for his senior year.

Honorable mention: Francisco Rodriguez, a right-handed reliever for the Los Angeles Angels -- but this one is a 24-year-old swingman with a 6.29 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 36 games in A-Ball; John Madden, a right-handed reliever in the Padres system; Brooks Dunn, whose parents were apparently country western fans, a lefty pitcher in the Padres system; Jimmy Rollins, a lefty reliever in the Royals system; Ryan Zimmerman, a right-handed reliever in the Tampa Bay organization; Bill White ("you huckleberry!"), a left-handed reliever in the Rangers system; Brian Wilson, a right-handed reliever recently called up to the Giants; and Steven Wright, a right-handed reliever in the Indians system.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

I don't want to hate Max Kellerman

I have the good fortune of working an 11-to-7 job, as opposed to 9-to-5, so I get to miss the morning traffic that would turn my 20-minute commute into an hour, but still get home early enough to have dinner or watch a Yankee game.

So during my drive I usually listen to Max Kellerman, who is on ESPN Radio from 10 a.m. to noon. And I really don't want to hate Max Kellerman. He's a young guy, he's sometimes funny, he pays attention to sabermetrics, he's a Yankee fan, he speaks Yiddish, he knows a lot about boxing, he bounced back from a horrifying tragedy, the murder of his 29-year-old brother. I root for Max Kellerman.


But every morning he says something that annoys me. Whether it's comparing Michael Vick's cruelty to dogs to eating breakfast or his inane "Max Kellerman Army" routine or his mind-bogglingly obvious and yet ridiculously stupid observation that if your offense was so good that you never made an out, you could never actually win a baseball game.

So I've come to expect every day that he will say something that will make me frown. And then I sigh to myself, "Aw Max, I don't want to hate you."

Yes, and people in other cars do look at me with pity.

This morning, I was going to let it slide when he said Phil Hughes is already the best starting pitcher in baseball. OK, whatever. Hyperbole from a Yankee fan is acceptable.

No, what annoyed me this morning was his argument that Johnny Damon is a better hitter than Melky Cabrera. Not that Cabrera's career won't be as good as Damon's, or that Damon was a better hitter at age 23 than Cabrera is, or anything like that. No, that at this moment in time, Damon is a better hitter than Cabrera.

Aggravating the annoyance factor: Kellerman came to the right conclusion for the wrong reason. He says that, when Jason Giambi comes back, Melky will be the odd man out.

I agree!

But then Max takes it a step further by saying that Melky should be the one on the bench.

With Giambi back, the Yankees will have four players (Giambi, Damon, Melky and Andy Phillips for three spots (first, center and DH). One of the four has to ride the pine.

Max argues that it should be Melky, saying that Damon is a better center fielder than Giambi is a first baseman, so you're not losing as much defensively by playing Damon in center over Cabrera as you would playing Giambi at first over Phillips.

Yeah, it's kind of like saying you'd rather bang Joan Rivers than Geraldo Rivera. Either way, it's going to be ugly and you're not going to brag about it.

No matter how bad Giambi is, he can still catch balls thrown directly at him by the other infielders, which is 99 percent of a first baseman's job. A good defensive first baseman is a bonus; a bad defensive center fielder is a nightmare. For the defense argument to work, you have to convince me that Damon is an adequate center fielder, and I just don't buy that. But you know what? Let's say he is.

Where Max really lost me is when he said, offensively, Damon is still a better hitter than Cabrera. Melky will be better one day, Max concedes -- saying that Cabrera's career numbers so far compare favorably to Bernie Williams -- but for the rest of this season, you'd rather have Damon hitting than Cabrera.

Huh?


Melky: .291/.348/.409, 14 2B, 5 HR, 9-2 SB in 330 AB
Damon: .247/.347/.344, 16 2B, 5 HR, 19-2 SB in 340 AB


Hm... well, Damon got off to a slow start. Maybe he means recently?


Melky in July: .373/.416/.510, 2 HR, 4-1 SB in 102 AB
Damon in July: .237/.370/.309, 0 HR, 6-2 SB in 97 AB


All right. Maybe he means lefty/righty?


Melky: .267/.342/.366 vs LHP, .301/.350/.428 vs RHP
Damon: .268/.345/.340 vs LHP, .239/.347/.346 vs RHP


I arrived at work and missed the end of the great Melky/Johnny debate, so maybe Kellerman had some brilliant point about how you can't look at the statistics. Maybe he said, "Yes, I know Cabrera has been better to this point this season, but he's just a kid and could fall apart. Damon, on the other hand, is a veteran hitter with a tremendous body of work who is bound to start hitting better over the last two months of the season." But now you've left the realm of the objective.

Yes, Damon could come around. Cabrera could fall on his face. Or not. One guy is turning 23 and the other turning 34. The last two months could be a fluke, but it's not like it would be unexpected for Cabrera to get better and Damon to get worse at their respective ages.

And yet after all that, what really annoys me to no end is that Kellerman is right. Cabrera will be on the bench and Damon will be in center field.

Why? Because Joe Torre loves veterans. That's all there is to it. He'll do his best to get Cabrera into games by giving outfielders a day off or giving Giambi the occasional start at first base, but barring an injury, I think you'll see more of Damon than you will of Cabrera from here on out. This is exactly why I didn't want the Yankees to bring Bernie back, because Torre would have found a way to play him every day no matter what.

What would I do? I'd have Cabrera in center and Phillips at first, with Damon and Giambi sharing the DH role depending on the match-up, maybe benching Phillips and stomaching Giambi at first if you're facing a tough righty. But that might ruffle some feathers, and Torre doesn't do that to his guys. Cabrera can wait 'til next year.

But c'mon, Max. Don't pretend to be a sabermetrics guy if you won't look at numbers.