Captain Confidence

This is just about everywhere, but if you haven't seen it yet you will be amused...

What the hell do I know? 2009 edition

I think I've conclusively proven that the answer is "not much." In 2007 I had three of the four A.L. playoff teams, but just one out of the four teams in the N.L. Last year I had the A.L. wild card right (Red Sox) but like everyone else blew it on the Rays. I got the Central wrong and the West right. In the N.L. I had two of the four, with the Cubs and Dodgers (although admittedly I thought the Dodgers were getting in as a wild card, not the West champs).

So two years in a row, I got half the playoff teams right. It's never good to have the same winning percentage as a coin flip.

Let's try a little harder this year, shall we? Yeah, whatever.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
A.L. East: As usual, give me the Yankees. Yes, lots of things could go wrong -- the Brewers treated C.C. Sabathia like a rented mule last year, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte are always an elbow twinge away from the D.L., Joba Chamberlain is on a strict innings count and Chien-Ming Wang, foot issues aside, has always been an injury risk. If they get 150 starts those those five pitchers, the Yankees have the best rotation in baseball. I realize that's a big "if." And even without their third baseman for the first six weeks of the season, the Yankees will have the best offense. As I do every year, I will pick the Red Sox for the wild card, followed by the Tampa Bay Rays returning to reality. The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles have a lot of rebuilding to do.

A.L. Central: I'm finally going to not pick the Cleveland Indians, so bet the house on them. But their pitching staff is atrocious. The Detroit Tigers are a mess and the Chicago White Sox have too many holes in their lineup. The Kansas City Royals will be a fun team this year. I love Trey Hillman, they have a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation with Gil Meche and Zack Greinke, and assuming the ugly finish to his spring wasn't a harbinger of things to come, an exciting closer in Joakim Soria. If I had any guts I'd pick them. I'll be a wuss and take the Minnesota Twins behind a resurgent Francisco Liriano.

A.L. West: Even with Kelvim Escobar, John Lackey and Ervin Santana out for the beginning of the year, even without Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez and Garret Anderson, I still think the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will continue to annoy people by winning the West. The Oakland A's and Texas Rangers just don't have the pitching, while the Seattle Mariners don't have anything.

A.L. Awards: I might as well be a total homer and predict Mark Teixeira will be the A.L. MVP. For those who do not live in the New York area and care about such things, John Sterling's ridiculous home run call for Teixeira is "There's a 'Tex' message in the upper deck (or wherever the ball landed). You've made your mark, Teixeira!" Yes, two puns in one home run call. It is only slightly less annoying than "an A-BOMB... from A-ROD!" Do you know Sterling has been calling Yankee games for 21 years? That means anybody under the age of 25 or so knows no other radio voice for the Yankees. That is just appalling. As for the A.L. Cy Young, I guess I have to go all-in on the Twins and give it to Francisco Liriano.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.L. East: Am I the only one sensing disaster with the New York Mets? It's hard to realistically gauge this team as I am constantly exposed to WFAN, where every host except for Mike Francesa is a huge Mets fan. I will concede Johan Santana is likely the best pitcher in the N.L., but let's not forget it was just a year ago everyone was whispering about how he might be hiding an injury. He wasn't exactly dominant last year -- his K/9 went from 9.7 in '07 to 7.9 last year, and that's with the pitcher hitting. Ut-oh. If Santana goes down, it's going to be a very ugly inaugural season at CitiField. And even if he stays healthy, he'll have to win 25 games. I just don't see it. I'll take the Philadelphia Phillies -- Cole Hamels is just missing one start, right? Gulp -- followed by the Atlanta Braves, and then the Mets, followed by the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals.

N.L. Central: I really can't imagine anyone catching the Chicago Cubs. I know the Cincinnati Reds are everybody's dark-horse favorite at the moment thanks to all the promising young guns in the rotation, but it's never a good idea to entrust an up-and-coming pitching staff to Dusty Baker. I think the St. Louis Cardinals will make it a race, but in the end they'll settle for the wild card. The Milwaukee Brewers just lost too much, the Houston Astros are heading in reverse and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still trying to get out of park.

N.L. West: The Wild West should be a fun division again. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a terrific lineup but no pitching. The San Francisco Giants have a nice rotation but no offense. The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks have a little of each. (The San Diego Padres will challenge the Pirates and Nats for the worst record in baseball, and just might catch them if they trade Jake Peavy before the deadline.) If the Giants had just a couple more hitters, I'd pick them to win it, but come on -- can a team with Bengie Molina as its clean-up hitter win a division title? I'm guessing, just like last year, the Dodgers will win it with a winning percentage just north of .500.

N.L. Awards: Oh why not, let's give the MVP to Manny Ramirez just to piss off Red Sox Nation. And I will continue to pretend that his elbow is sound and give the Cy Young to Cole Hamels.

POST-SEASON
A.L. Playoffs: Yankees over Angels, finally; Twins over Red Sox. Yankees over Twins.

N.L. Playoffs: Cubs over Dodgers; Cardinals over Phillies. Cubs over Cardinals.

World Series: In a rematch of the first-ever games at the new Yankee Stadium -- not to mention the '38 and '32 World Series -- the Yankees finally pick up No. 27 and sweep the Cubs. Hey, I've predicted the Yankees will win the World Series every year since birth; so far I'm 6-31!