Who can we blame for this? Part 2

Last month I asked who can we blame for the Yankees' disappointing start, and a few days later the Yankees answered by firing the performance enhancement director.

Record before Marty Miller was fired: 10-14. Record since then: 8-8.

OK, so that was obviously a step in the right direction. Plus we haven't had any hamstring injuries since then. So kudos to the Yankees for firing Miller.

Unfortunately, even if we can keep up this impressive .500 performance of the post-Miller era, it won't be enough to get us back into the post-season. (Unless we can convince the Red Sox to hire Marty.)

As a diehard Yankee fan, of course I think we're going to go on a 122-game winning streak and finish the season with the best record in baseball. But now that we're officially a quarter of the way through the season, what would be a realistic number to throw out there for the Yankees' win total?

Now, before the season started, I said the Yankees would win 100 games. Appropriately, I titled that post "What the hell do I know?" But let's say the Yankees truly are a 100-win team -- which would be a .617 winning percentage -- that got off to a bad start.

Starting at 18-22, if we play .617 baseball over the final three quarters of the season, we go 75-47 -- and finish the year at 93-69.

In fact, Paul Katcher just blogged earlier this week that, going by Pythagorean winning percentage, the Yankees are really a 94-win team. So let's say 93-69 is a reasonable target -- which would mean no one else gets hurt, but also that Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes don't make much of a difference. We're essentially the same team we are now but some of the breaks start going our way.

Oddly enough, the Red Sox also have played 40 games, but they are 28-12. For us to pass them, they'd have to finish the season going 64-58 (.525 W%). That would leave them at 92-70. And you know what? I don't think that's impossible.

I'm sure Boston fans will scoff at anything less than a .700 winning percentage the rest of the way, but .700 might be more unrealistic than .525. So far they've avoided any major injuries, and they've been getting amazing -- a cynic would say unsustainably amazing -- performances from their pitching staff. Last year they were 86-76, which is just one win better than a .525 W%. On the other hand, you could also point out that they're a better team that they were last year, or that this year they have a .700 Pythagorean winning percentage and that's without any production from J.D. Drew or Manny Ramirez.

It's too early to write off the A.L. East, but just for a moment, what about the wild card? Right now, the Detroit Tigers are leading at 25-16 (.610 W%). If we assume the Yankees win 93 games, the Tigers would have to go 67-54 (.554 W%) to finish at 92-70. Is that unrealistic? Well, if they play in line with their current Pythagorean winning percentage (.561 W%), they would go 68-53 -- which would leave them tied with us at 93 wins.

I know on a cold and gray May morning, coming off a tough loss last night in which we were shut down by yet another lefty, this may look like a lost season. But have hope. We still have a lot of baseball left to play, and the numbers above aren't unrealistic. Clemens and Hughes are coming back, Mariano Rivera is looking better, the offense will start clicking soon.

And if worse comes to worst, we can always fire the assistant to the traveling secretary.