Friday, March 30, 2007

What the hell do I know?



Yeah, everybody does it -- but it's pointless to predict the upcoming baseball season.


There are three possible outcomes.

1) I get it wrong, so six months from now, people look back and laugh at what a fool I was. Why didn't I realize the Yankee rotation had so many question marks? Why didn't I pay more attention to the Cubs' off-season spending spree? And so on.

2) I get it right, but six months from now, it all seems so obvious. Well, of course the Yankees were going to win the A.L. East. They win it every year. Oh, you said the Cubs wouldn't win? Yeah, way to go out on a limb there. Got any other predictions, Nostradumbass?

3) I get it right or wrong, but six months from now, nobody remembers or cares what I said anyway.

Option 3, of course, being the most likely.

Damn it all, I will make my predictions anyway. Behold!

A.L. East: Yes, I think the Yankees will win it again, for the 10th straight year. I'll even say they'll win 100 games, for the first time since '04. The best lineup in baseball plus Mariano Rivera. The rotation will be fine;
there's no need to do anything drastic. The Red Sox will win the wild card, the Blue Jays just behind them in 3rd, then Baltimore and Tampa Bay battling it out for the bottom.

A.L. Central: The best division in the A.L. last year, the worst this year? The Sporting News Baseball 2007 had the Twins as the best team in baseball. (No, they didn't make their predictions before Francisco Liriano's injury.) What the hell? I don't think they'll win 90 games this year. In fact, I don't think any team in this division will. There will be a big pile-up in the high 80s, with everybody but the Royals having a shot. I'll go with the Indians to come out on top, even with Joe Borowski as their closer. (Although I am a little nervous as they've suddenly gone from sleeper pick to favorite.)

A.L. West: As a Yankee fan, I gotta say anybody but the freaking Angels. I'll go with Oakland to repeat, and win about 93 games again. Why? I liked Moneyball. Seriously, I think Los Anaheimeles will take a step backward, especially since Sports Illustrated picked them to win the A.L. In fact, they might fall behind the Rangers, who will be better this year (but not as good as some people think.) The Mariners will be a distant fourth, and only because they can't finish fifth in a four-team division.

N.L. East: I think the Phillies will give the Mets a run for their money this year, but I think the Amazins will repeat. Hey, I may be a Yankee fan, but I have nothing against the Mets. (It's Mets fans I don't like.) Their pitching staff is a nightmare, but they should be able to bash their way to 90 or so wins. The Phils will be a game or two behind them, which should be just good enough to win the wild card. Atlanta will be around .500; Florida will fall apart, maybe even finishing behind Washington.

N.L. Central: Wow, both Centrals are looking very weak to me. St. Louis? It's not a good sign when Kip Wells is your No. 2 starter. But then you look at the rotations in Cincinnati, Houston and Chicago. Good lord. In fact, the Brewers probably have the best starting five, but they'll be held back by their offense. And the Pirates... are still the Pirates. Still, one of these teams has to finish above .500 and win the division, so what the heck -- let's say Houston. (Do you realize the Astros have finished 2nd in the division for five straight years?)

N.L. West: The Padres have enough pitching to win a third straight N.L. West title, and I think just enough hitting. I know
lots of people are picking the Dodgers, but they always find a way to screw it up. They'll probably build up a nice division lead going into August, and then their all-AARP team will fall apart. Who knows what to make of the Rockies and their crazy humidor; put them around .500 with the Diamondbacks. The Giants will finish last, but at least we all get to say good-bye to Barry Bonds.

1 comment:

Scott said...

We're a couple of weeks in, but here are my picks anyhow:

Boston
Detroit
Angels
wc - Yankees

Mets
Astros
Dodgers
wc - Braves

- Scott ... Roto Journal