Thursday, January 17, 2008

Deal or no deal?

Let's say you run the Yankees and I run the Red Sox, and in the interest of putting aside our long-standing rivalry, we should make a fair trade that will make everybody happy.

How about you trade me 21-year-old right-hander Phil Hughes for 24-year-old left-hander Jon Lester.

Hughes, in 13 MLB starts, has a 4.46 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, with 29 BB and 58 K in 72.2 IP; in the minors, a 2.09 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP with 66 BB and 311 Ks in 275 IP.

Lester, in 26 MLB starts, has a 4.68 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 74 BB and 110 K in 144.1 IP; in the minors, a 3.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 203 BB and 446 K in 484 IP.

What? No deal?

OK. How about if Lester came with Coco Crisp, a 28-year-old center fielder who hit .268 with a .712 OPS last year (career .280, .738) and will make $4.75 million next year. Would that convince you to make the deal?

Oh wait - but you have to throw in 22-year-old Melky Cabrera, who hit .273 with a .718 OPS last year (career .280, .728) and makes $432,400. Does that make the deal better?

No? Sheesh. OK, how about if I also give you 22-year-old right-hander Justin Masterson (4.34 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 18 BB, 59 K in Double-A). But you have to also include 22-year-old right-hander Jeff Marquez (3.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 44 BB, 94 K in Double-A).

Still won't pull the trigger? Fine. I'll throw in 23-year-old middle infielder Jed Lowrie (.300, .862 OPS in Triple-A).

What is wrong with you?

Alright, stop whining. Let's try a different deal. How about you give me Hughes, Cabrera and Marquez, and instead of Lester and Crisp, I'll give you Lowrie, Masterson and... (drumroll)... Jacoby Ellsbury! The 23-year-old center fielder hit .353/.394/.509 in 116 major league at-bats last year, and .314/.390/.426 over a three-year minor league career. No question he's a good young hitter... a good enough hitter to get me Hughes, wouldn't you say?

No?... you are impossible to deal with!

If the Twins don't think Hughes and Cabrera is enough for Johan Santana, that's fine. But how anyone can think that Lester/Crisp or just Ellsbury is a better offer just boggles my mind.

Baseball America graded out four offers for Santana and say either of the Red Sox offers is better than the Yankee offer. (The Mets offer comes out last, if only because all the players involved are so young that they're all gambles.) Obviously I know far less about baseball than the people at Baseball America. But on what planet is Hughes not worth more than Ellsbury or Lester+Crisp?

Are Masterson and Lowrie so much more valuable than Cabrera and Marquez that it makes up for the difference with Hughes?

Young pithers are a fragile commodity, I get that. The long list of superstars-to-be who never made it is long and sad. I'm sure you can find guys with minor league numbers as good or better than Hughes who never made it. But you can make that same argument about Lester or Masterson or any other young pitcher.

And I'm not trying to sell Cabrera as being on Ellsbury's level. (But surely he's worth more than Crisp!) But if you had Hughes, would you really trade him for Ellsbury straight up?

I'm not buying any of this. I think the Twins want Hughes, but they're also trying to get Ian Kennedy or somebody else out of the Yankees, and the Yankees are sticking to their initial offer. So what do you do if you're the Twins? Of course, you run to the Red Sox and Mets, say their offers are better, and hope the Yankees bite and put more on the table.

But Baseball America would trade Hughes and Melky for Lester and Crisp?

Really?

1 comment:

YankeeGM said...

You hit the nail right on the head - I don't care what those Red Sox loving dopes at ESPN say, the Yankee package is MUCH stronger than the Sox'. As to BA, their Red Sox guy is extremely high on the SS (lowrie), so I guess it is (kinda) understandable.

Personally I hope Johan goes to the Mets. Not that I wouldn't love to see him is Pinstripes, but I honestly believe Hughes will be almost as good in '08, and definately as good beyond that.